A new study from one of Europe’s leading demographic research centres, estimates that at least 100,000 Palestinians have likely been killed by Israel genocide in Gaza.
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Germany places the death toll significantly higher than the nearly 70,000 deaths reported by the Palestinian health ministry.
MPIDR estimates that 78,318 people (70,614–87,504) were killed in Gaza between 7 October 2023 and 31 December 2024. An updated analysis conducted after the report’s publication suggests the current number of violent deaths now likely exceeds 100,000.
The study also finds that Gaza’s life expectancy has collapsed. In 2023, it dropped by 44 percent, and in 2024 by 47 percent, compared with what would have been expected without the war, equivalent to losses of 34.4 and 36.4 years respectively.
Because of limited and fragmented data, the researchers used a statistical model designed to account for substantial uncertainties.
“The tension between data limitations and the demand for meaningful metrics was the impetus for this study,” said researcher Ana C. Gómez-Ugarte. “We demonstrate that these challenges do not have to be mutually exclusive.
“Our goal is to estimate life expectancy and the losses in life expectancy caused by the Gaza conflict in Palestine in a way that accounts for incomplete or sparse data.”
The study also found that the age and gender patterns of violent deaths in Gaza during the period examined closely resemble those seen in several genocides documented by the UN Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME).
Gómez-Ugarte added that the findings likely understate the true impact: “Our estimates of the impact of war on life expectancy in Gaza and Palestine are significant, but probably represent only a lower limit of the actual mortality burden.
“Our analysis focuses exclusively on direct, conflict-related deaths. The indirect effects of war, which are often greater and more long-lasting, are not quantified in our considerations.”
