A letter published in the Lancet, one of the world’s most respected medical journals, says that Israel’s war on Gaza could see the death toll of Palestinians reach over 186,000 since October 7.
The study points out several factors contributing to this higher estimate, including the thousands of bodies still buried under rubble and the “indirect deaths” due to the extensive destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure, food distribution and health facilities.
UN estimates indicate that by February 29, 2024, 35% of buildings in the Gaza Strip had been destroyed. The study says those buried in the rubble are likely substantial, with estimates of more than 10,000.
“The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population’s inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip,” the Lancet report said.
“In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths.
“Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza.”
The report says that figure would translate to nearly 8% of the whole population in Gaza, a staggering figure that conveys the brutality of Israel’s war on Gaza.
The gravity of this estimate is underscored by the continued violence as reports emerged on Wednesday of Israeli airstrikes killing 20 Palestinians in central Gaza, including six children and three women, many of whom were in the IDF’s designated “safe zone.”
An “immediate and urgent” ceasefire needed
The study’s figures surpass the official death toll reported by Gaza’s Ministry of Health, which stands at more than 38,000 Palestinians killed by Israel.
It says these figures have been contested by the Israeli authorities but accepted as accurate by Israeli intelligence services, the UN, and WHO.
“These data are supported by independent analyses, comparing changes in the number of deaths of UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff with those reported by the Ministry, which found claims of data fabrication implausible,” it adds.
The study highlights the long-term health implications of the war, stating that even if the war ends immediately, it will continue to cause many indirect deaths in the coming months through disease outbreaks and lack of medical care.
“An immediate and urgent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is essential, accompanied by measures to enable the distribution of medical supplies, food, clean water, and other resources for basic human needs,” it said.
The researchers stress the importance of documenting the casualties of the war: “Documenting the true scale is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war. It is also a legal requirement.”
The report triggered outrage on social media. Francesca Albanese, the UN’s special rapporteur on Palestine, said on X, “That’s one in every 12 Gaza inhabitants killed in the last nine months of genocide.”
Meanwhile, Labour MP Zara Sultana used the research to urge the new Labour government to end arms sales to Israel.
