With the US presidential race on a knife edge, Muslim American voting could prove crucial as Israel’s genocide in Gaza disrupts Democrats’ traditionally strong support among Muslim voters.

The last poll before election day of US Muslims, published by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), showed a statistical tie between Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

It revealed that 42% now favour Stein versus 41% for Vice President Kamala Harris. Both were tied at 29% in CAIR’s late August survey.

CAIR’s poll of 1,449 verified Muslim voters shows 10% support for former president Donald Trump (Republican Party), nearly the same as the 11% support he received in the August poll. 

The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

“This final national poll of American Muslim voters confirms that our community members are deeply engaged in the 2024 election, with 95 percent saying they plan to turn out to vote,” said CAIR National Executive Director Nihad Awad.

“The poll also confirms that opposition to US support for the war on Gaza continues to play a major role in influencing Muslim voter preferences. 

“Our message for American Muslims is simple: regardless of who you plan to support, it is essential that you turn out to vote. 

“Do not sit on the sidelines. Make your voices heard and show the strength of our community in states across our nation.”

Gaza a factor

Palestine and the war on Gaza have emerged as a major issue for Muslim American voters in 2024, even overshadowing domestic concerns. 

This has manifested in widespread demonstrations across major cities and university campuses, sparking unprecedented voter mobilisation efforts.

The significant decline in support for major presidential candidates from previous elections in 2020 and 2016 is directly tied to the community’s outrage over Gaza, said CAIR Government Affairs Director Robert S. McCaw.

“We encourage all presidential candidates to address the concerns of Muslim voters in these final days of the campaign, and we encourage all American Muslim voters to turn out regardless of who they support,” he added.

The US’ estimated 2.5 million Muslim voters will play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape. They have significant presence in key swing states, such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Muslim American voters could prove decisive in the presidential race and down-ballot contests, from congressional seats to state and local elections.